Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,712
2 New Jersey 19,784
3 Rhode Island 16,192
4 Massachusetts 16,008
5 District of Columbia 14,975
6 Louisiana 14,707
7 Arizona 14,447
8 Connecticut 13,191
9 Delaware 12,748
10 Illinois 11,845
11 Maryland 11,741
12 Mississippi 10,824
13 Nebraska 10,445
14 Iowa 10,190
15 Florida 9,953
16 Alabama 9,337
17 South Carolina 9,196
18 Georgia 8,825
19 Utah 8,173
20 Arkansas 8,122
21 South Dakota 8,096
22 Virginia 7,819
23 Nevada 7,742
24 Tennessee 7,708
25 Texas 7,558
26 Pennsylvania 7,497
27 Michigan 7,410
28 Indiana 7,406
29 California 7,282
30 North Carolina 7,270
31 Minnesota 6,945
32 New Mexico 6,546
33 Wisconsin 6,154
34 Colorado 6,028
35 Kansas 5,889
36 Washington 5,129
37 North Dakota 5,121
38 Ohio 5,039
39 Idaho 4,802
40 New Hampshire 4,362
41 Oklahoma 4,351
42 Missouri 4,165
43 Kentucky 3,988
44 Wyoming 2,956
45 Puerto Rico 2,728
46 Maine 2,559
47 Oregon 2,516
48 Vermont 2,009
49 West Virginia 1,955
50 Alaska 1,945
51 Montana 1,241
52 Hawaii 743

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 482
2 Florida 368
3 Louisiana 356
4 Texas 269
5 South Carolina 256
6 Nevada 235
7 Idaho 214
8 Alabama 198
9 Georgia 191
10 California 190
11 Mississippi 172
12 Tennessee 166
13 Utah 154
14 Arkansas 143
15 Delaware 143
16 North Carolina 143
17 Oklahoma 132
18 Kansas 113
19 New Mexico 105
20 Iowa 104
21 Washington 99
22 Puerto Rico 96
23 Wisconsin 91
24 Minnesota 89
25 Kentucky 82
26 Missouri 81
27 Ohio 77
28 Maryland 69
29 Nebraska 65
30 Virginia 63
31 Indiana 60
32 Wyoming 60
33 District of Columbia 57
34 West Virginia 55
35 Oregon 53
36 Pennsylvania 53
37 Illinois 51
38 Rhode Island 51
39 North Dakota 50
40 South Dakota 50
41 Montana 49
42 Colorado 47
43 Michigan 43
44 Alaska 38
45 New Jersey 31
46 Connecticut 29
47 New York 28
48 Massachusetts 24
49 Hawaii 16
50 New Hampshire 14
51 Maine 10
52 Vermont 8

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,720
2 New York 1,641
3 Connecticut 1,216
4 Massachusetts 1,191
5 Rhode Island 914
6 District of Columbia 794
7 Louisiana 713
8 Michigan 626
9 Illinois 574
10 Maryland 540
11 Pennsylvania 533
12 Delaware 527
13 Indiana 403
14 Mississippi 389
15 Colorado 296
16 New Hampshire 282
17 Georgia 268
18 Minnesota 268
19 Arizona 265
20 Ohio 254
21 New Mexico 247
22 Iowa 232
23 Virginia 220
24 Alabama 210
25 Washington 181
26 Florida 178
27 Nevada 178
28 Missouri 176
29 California 166
30 South Carolina 164
31 Nebraska 148
32 Kentucky 141
33 Wisconsin 140
34 North Carolina 137
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 110
37 Oklahoma 102
38 Arkansas 99
39 Kansas 99
40 Texas 97
41 Tennessee 96
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 81
44 Utah 60
45 West Virginia 53
46 Idaho 52
47 Oregon 52
48 Puerto Rico 49
49 Wyoming 36
50 Montana 21
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 13

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 5
2 Mississippi 5
3 New Jersey 3
4 Florida 2
5 Louisiana 2
6 Nevada 2
7 Rhode Island 2
8 South Carolina 2
9 Alabama 1
10 Arkansas 1
11 California 1
12 District of Columbia 1
13 Georgia 1
14 Illinois 1
15 Indiana 1
16 Iowa 1
17 Kentucky 1
18 Maryland 1
19 Massachusetts 1
20 Michigan 1
21 Missouri 1
22 New York 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Ohio 1
25 Pennsylvania 1
26 Tennessee 1
27 Texas 1
28 Utah 1
29 Virginia 1
30 Washington 1
31 Alaska 0
32 Colorado 0
33 Connecticut 0
34 Delaware 0
35 Hawaii 0
36 Idaho 0
37 Kansas 0
38 Maine 0
39 Minnesota 0
40 Montana 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Mexico 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 South Dakota 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 133,197 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,917 2 99
Lee Arkansas 90,889 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 89,733 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 87,615 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 17,795 156 95
Richland South Carolina 10,278 444 85
Orange California 6,350 840 73
York South Carolina 5,598 962 69
Pierce Washington 3,582 1436 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,282 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 216 672 78
Davidson Tennessee 183 743 76
Pierce Washington 122 982 68
Orange California 115 1023 67
York South Carolina 43 1607 48

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons